While President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin are verbally dueling each other 800 miles apart in separate speeches on Tuesday, the reality remains that the war in Ukraine itself will likely be won or lost in Crimea.
BIDEN ANNOUNCES $500 MILLION IN NEW MILITARY AID DURING TRIP TO KYIV
Yes, Biden’s trip to Kyiv was courageous — and clearly needed by the Ukrainians. It channeled the best of both Presidents John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan in their own visits to Berlin during the height of the Cold War. However, words and symbolism alone do not win battles. Even as he provides new commitments of U.S. support, Biden has again failed to provide the long-range precision weapons Ukraine needs for a combined arms assault on Crimea. More artillery rounds, Javelins, and howitzers are a start, but they are not ATACMS and F-16 fighter-bombers.
Unless and until the impasse in Crimea is broken, that bloody World War I-style fighting further east in the Donbas will continue preventing Ukraine from winning this war. A credible Ukrainian threat to Crimea changes that dynamic, crossing a Kremlin-imposed “red line” and putting Putin on his heels.
Incrementalism in the hopes of forcing Putin to the negotiating table seemingly remains Washington’s strategy. But Putin will not bite. He is content to keep throwing Russian troops into his woodchipper in the Donbas — and will keep doing so until Crimea is retaken by Ukraine.
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Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division and the Intelligence and Security Command. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022.
Mark Toth is a retired economist and entrepreneur who has worked in banking, insurance, publishing, and global commerce. Follow him on Twitter @MCTothSTL.
