ABCDEFHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAE
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ParametersInputsInput zone = yellow cellsYear 1Year 2
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A. Wishlist at launch200,000M1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8M9M10M11M12M1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8M9M10M11M12
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B. Wishlist conversion month 1 (1)
17%Discount
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C. Release sales attenuation factor65%Units sold (@release)10%34,000
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D. Discount attenuation factor (2)15%Units sold (Discount 1)20%6,80010,200
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E. VAT (3)20%Units sold (Discount 2)25%6,800
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F. Store commission30%Units sold (Discount 3)33%10,200
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G. Game full price14.99Units sold (Discount 4)50%10,200
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H. Publisher investment (4)500,000Units sold (Discount 5)75%12,2406,800
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I. Publisher share until recoup80%Long tail incl. refund (@release)90%30,60019,89012,9298,4045,4623,5502,3081,500975634412340323307292277263250237226214204193184
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J. Publisher share post-recoup60%
Long tail incl. refund (Discount 1)
80%0006,1209181389,1801,3772073151000000000000
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K. Studio investment300,000
Long tail incl. refund (Discount 2)
75%00000006,120918138213000000000000
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L. Refund rate10%
Long tail incl. refund (Discount 3)
67%00000000009,1801,377207315100000000
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Assumptions & Notes

(1)
Cf "industry benchmarks" below. When in doubt, be conservative.
(2) Several studios report a full attenation (D=0%) once sale is over. If you significantly increased your visibility during a sale, you might want to add a small tail to reflect additional sales over time.
(3) 20% VAT is a reasonable proxy for most western countries.
(4) 200K Publisher investment typically includes production funding (100K), marketing costs (50K) and internal publisher costs (50K). Internal publisher costs are generally not recoupable. Ask him for the split !
Long tail incl. refund (Discount 4)
50%00000000000000009,1801,377207315100
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Long tail incl. refund (Discount 5)
25%000000000000000000011,0161,6522486,120918
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TOTAL UNITS (per month)31k20k13k15k6k4k11k9k2k80210k2k5303382962789k2k44411k2k4526k1k
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TOTAL UNITS (cumulated)31k50k63k78k84k88k99k108k111k111k121k123k123k124k124k124k134k135k136k147k149k149k156k157k
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NET REVENUES (per month)241k174k113k116k56k32k84k65k18k7k58k15k5k3k3k2k42k14k4k26k16k4k15k10k
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NET REVENUES (cumulated)241k415k528k644k700k732k817k882k900k907k965k980k984k987k990k992k1,035k1,049k1,053k1,079k1,096k1,100k1,115k1,124k
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NET REVENUES publisher (per month)
193k139k90k93k33k19k51k39k11k4k35k9k3k2k2k1k25k9k2k16k10k2k9k6k
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NET REVENUES publisher (cumulated)
193k332k422k515k549k568k619k658k669k673k708k717k719k721k723k724k750k758k761k776k786k789k798k803k
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Publisher recoup duration111000000000000000000000
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NET REVENUES studio (per month)48k35k23k23k22k13k34k26k7k3k23k6k2k1k1k97117k6k2k11k7k2k6k4k
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NET REVENUES studio (cumulated)
48k83k106k129k151k164k198k224k231k234k257k263k265k266k267k268k285k291k292k303k309k311k317k321k
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Studio recoup duration111111111111111111100000
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/!\ THIS DOCUMENT IS READ-ONLY. TO MODIFY FIELDS, DOWNLOAD AS AN EXCEL FILE OR FILE/MAKE A COPY
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INDUSTRY BENCHMARKSBased on your release attenuation factor, your "year 1 wishlist to sales ratio" is
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• Wishlist to sales conversion ratio
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Week 1 : 10 to 30%link 1, link 2
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Month 1 : 15 to 40% (= week 1 x1.1-1.3)
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Year 1 : 30 to 90% (= month 1 x2-3)
44%
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• Refund ratesJapanese version (thanks to @cherry_hydras)
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3% to 17% with an average of 10%
link
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• Sales per review ratio
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from 20 to 60 with a median of 40
link
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• Publisher investment split
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50% production funding
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25% marketing external costs (ads, PR...)
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25% publisher internal costs (staff)
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