India
India is set to be the second-fastest growing economy in the G20 in FY 2022-23, despite decelerating global demand and the tightening of monetary policy to manage inflationary pressures. GDP growth will slow to 5.7% in FY 2023-24, as exports and domestic demand growth moderate. Inflation will crimp private consumption but moderate at the end of the projection period, helping, along with improved global conditions, to boost growth to 6.9% in FY 2024-25, in line with the 20-year average (excluding the COVID-19 recession). After a spike in 2022, the current account deficit will narrow as import price pressures abate.
High medium-term global uncertainty reinforces the importance of continued efforts to raise potential output growth and resilience. Macroeconomic stability should be pursued through monetary policy geared towards anchoring inflation expectations and fiscal policy oriented towards debt control and targeting of current and capital spending. Improvements in the business climate, when combined with financial deepening and skills development, can boost investment and infrastructure and create more and better jobs.
The strong recovery has slowed
Economic growth has lost momentum over the summer, due to a combination of erratic rainfall, which impacted sowing activities, and falling purchasing power. Concerns over demand conditions are considerable in services and infrastructure sectors, while consumers have become cautious regarding non-essential spending due to higher prices for food and energy. Tighter financial market conditions are weighing on the demand for capital goods, a leading indicator for aggregate investment. Export growth remains well-oriented, especially for services, and the progressive entry into force of comprehensive trade agreements with major partners is helping to improve prospects. Nonetheless, the monthly energy and food import bill keeps rising and the current account deficit widened in the July-September quarter to 2.9% of GDP. Headline inflation remains above 6% (the central bank’s upper bound of the tolerance band), mostly due to the trend increase in the price of food (which in India accounts for a larger share of the consumer basket than in any other G20 country). Unemployment estimates suggest improving labour market conditions in both urban and rural areas, but there are few signs of a wage-inflation spiral.
1. Projected value for 2022Q3.
2. Headline inflation refers to the change in price of all goods in the basket. OECD seasonal adjustment based on monthly consumer price index (index 2012 = 100) from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI).
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 112 database; S&P Global; CEIC; and RBI.
1. The unweighted average of general government debt ratio for similarly-rated countries (Bulgaria, Costa Rica, Hungary, Indonesia, Kazakhstan,
Mexico, Malaysia, Peru, the Philippines, Romania, Thailand and Uruguay) and BICS countries (Brazil, Indonesia, China and South Africa).
Source: IMF (2022), World Economic Outlook, October; and World Bank, World Development Indicators.
Global developments greatly influence the business climate. The share of India’s oil imports from Russia rose to 16% in April-August 2022 from 2% in FY 2021-22 and is expected to grow further. The reversal of capital flows has contributed to the rupee’s depreciation against the US dollar. On the fiscal front, the free food programme for the poor, the world’s biggest, has been extended several times (most recently, until end-2022), bringing the cost to almost USD 50 billion since April 2020 (2.6% of FY 2021-22 GDP). It is necessary to ensure that any increase in minimum dietary intakes is sustained once the intervention is phased out.
Macroeconomic policies are turning restrictive
In line with the central bank’s commitment to take calibrated action to bring headline inflation back within the 2-6% tolerance band and keep inflation expectations anchored, policy rates are expected to rise by 75bps, to reach 6.65% in February 2023 before the tightening cycle is paused. In fighting inflation, monetary policy is complemented by cuts in excise taxes and a series of measures taken by the government, such as the export bans on wheat, wheat flour, sugar and broken rice and a 20% export duty on some varieties of non-basmati rice. Such trade restrictions must be temporary, use transparent methodologies to determine their duration, and give due consideration to the effects on trading partners’ food security.
Expanding infrastructure spending, such as on highways and railways, occupies a central position in the government strategy. These programmes are being successfully implemented, surmounting some technical obstacles at the state level. At the same time, prolonged targeted and non-targeted fiscal measures and rising interest rates weigh on the public debt. On current trends, tax collection will surpass the budgeted projections by the end of FY 2022-23, due to higher inflation and better compliance, thus reducing borrowing requirements. The projections assume fiscal tightening in the next biennium. There still remain considerable margins to improve efficiency, accountability, and transparency of public spending, devoting more resources to health and education and building fiscal space to enhance resilience.
The economy will not escape the global slowdown
After hitting 6.6% in FY 2022-23, GDP growth is expected to slow in coming quarters, to 5.7% in FY 2023-24, before reverting to around 7% in FY 2024-25. CPI inflation will remain above the central bank’s upper limit target of 6% at least until early 2023 and then gradually recede as higher interest rates take effect. High inflation will slow household consumption and delay investment, as financing becomes more expensive, and exports will be affected by the economic slowdown in advanced countries and geopolitical tensions. Offsetting these forces, at least partially, some improvements can be expected as more contact-intensive services sectors normalise, including international tourism once borders are fully open and restrictions lifted.
Most risks to the projections are tilted to the downside and include a deterioration of banks’ assets quality, despite enhanced provisioning and the establishment of a ‘bad bank’, as well as possible delays in fiscal consolidation and in concluding bilateral trade negotiations. Declining geopolitical uncertainty, on the other hand, would boost confidence and benefit all sectors, as would faster-than-expected conclusion of free-trade agreements with key partners and the incorporation therein of services.
Progress in financial inclusion and energy security can be further extended
India has recorded impressive progress in recent years in extending access to financial services to a larger portion of the population, including disadvantaged socio-economic groups. Leveraging the country’s competitive strength in ICT, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and other tools are easing the transition towards a cashless economy. Nonetheless, gaps and challenges in the usage of financial services are still considerable: in particular, roughly a third of bank accounts are inactive. In order to enhance energy security, the use of LED bulbs in private and public spaces can have sizeable effects (savings of more than 4% of electricity final consumption per year); important results have been achieved and further actions are needed to develop appropriate financial instruments (for example, the Treasury is expected to debut on the green bonds market with a forthcoming INR 160 billion issue), test new business models and strengthen institutional capacity.