Daily update
Daily update
- The US employment report is due. The official employment data is revised a lot, and may miss some workers. The explosion of business creation in the pandemic may not be captured, and it seems unlikely that those employed dancing in front of their smartphones for social media are properly categorized. (This is a proper job—and as I play with Playmobil for a living, I will not judge).
- Employment matters because job security underpins the economic recovery. Workers have falling real incomes, which should mean a consumer crunch. But job security gives people the confidence to save less each month, so they have more to spend, slowing the decline in demand. Today’s data should show some slowdown in job creation, but the payrolls and hours worked numbers have recently remained completely inconsistent with any idea of a recession.
- There are four ECB speakers on the agenda, including ECB President Lagarde. The remarks come in the wake of a generally unremarkable set of minutes—there was the normal babble about unanchored inflation expectations.
- UK Prime Minister Johnson’s caretaker role creates policy inertia in the UK until a replacement can be found. Johnson is unlikely to take care of much, besides planning a big party at the Prime Minister’s Chequers residence.
