The current US ambassador to Belgrade Anthony F. Godfrey has built his image mainly as a fan of Serbian food, clearly trying to alleviate the US’s bad image in Serbia over its policy towards the regime of Slobodan Milosevic during the 1990s.
Hill’s likely arrival in Belgrade on the other hand has already evoked memories of his diplomatic activities with the late Bosnian peacemaker Richard Holbrooke in the 1990s.
Joe Biden’s administration has shown it wants a different kind of ambassador, who knows the field and has personal trust of the President to whom he can refer directly.
During the last two years, the US administration has followed a relatively mild and almost uncritical attitude to Serbia, so a change of ambassadors will certainly change American policy towards Serbia and the region as well.
Hill’s diplomatic aim will be to put pressure on President Aleksandar Vucic on key issues of interest to the US.
News of his nomination comes at a time of rapidly strengthening relations between Serbia and China, the most active foreign policy player in Serbia since the beginning of the pandemic.
Apart from the unresolved relations between Serbia and its former province of Kosovo and the political crisis over Serbian separatism in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the rise of anti-Western influences in Serbia may have been one reason for the activation of a diplomatic specialist like Hill.
Serbia’s authorities can look both positively and negatively towards Hill’s nomination: they may be satisfied that Serbia is again in the focus of the US administration, especially when it comes to the investments of US tech companies; on the other hand, a greater focus will be followed by the pressure on Serbia to resolve unresolved political issues that President Vucic has been promising to deliver for years.
The fact that Serbia will be under renewed US scrutiny will impact on Serbian domestic politics. The US will not work on channelling investments to Serbia unless the business environment improves, which means serious reforms in the rule of law.
If Vucic fulfills some of his earlier promises under the pressure of America, it could dent his popularity in Serbia. The Serbian opposition, on the other hand, can view Hill’s arrival in Belgrade more positively. They stand to gain political benefits if the Americans put pressure on Vucic.
A few days ago, the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a hearing on Hill’s nomination, which is a step before the Senate confirms or rejects his nomination. This hearing was an opportunity to hear the views of the nominated ambassador who will lead a refreshed US policy in the Western Balkans.
One of the key foreign policy statements made by Hill related to the new positioning of the US in Serbia and the region, which should show that US offers a better model than Russia or China.
Strong concerns related to military procurement from Russia and China’s growing activity in Serbia in terms of infrastructure projects.
In recent years, China has strengthened its presence in Serbia through numerous infrastructure projects, video surveillance projects and security cooperation. A deal on the production of Chinese vaccines in Serbia is only the latest joint project of the Serbian and Chinese authorities.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and his Serbian counterpart Aleksandar Vucic (L) shake hands during a meeting in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. Photo: EPA-EFE/MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV / KREMLIN POOL
Serbia has in fact shown how the lack of interest of one world power opens up an opportunity for others to strengthen their influence. That may also explain the sudden US wish to play more active role in the region.
“The United States does not want to see the strengthening of Russian influence in Belgrade. Serbia is buying military equipment and that is necessary, but it is worried that it is procuring weapons from Russia. Also, in order to satisfy the great infrastructural needs, Serbia is turning to China. We need to show Serbia that we offer a better model, that we are a better alternative than Russia and China,” Hill said.
His statement sent an important message to other key players in Serbia that Washington will strengthen its presence in order to counter these increased foreign influences. Hill was clear on this, that Serbia needs to build resistance to harmful external influences that come primarily from Russia and China.
As an independent, sovereign state, Serbia has the right and should develop good relations with various parties, but it should also pursue a policy that is in line with its foreign policy goals, he noted.
One of those goals is EU membership, which is not possible without necessary reforms. Such reforms are impossible while there are a large number of infrastructure and other projects with China that are accompanied by non-transparency in the work, which further undermines the rule of law in Serbia, he added.
That the new US ambassador will focus on reforms is also evidenced by his statement that the US and its European partners will continue to support Serbia’s development as a modern, prosperous European country.
“The US supports Serbia’s strategic priority, its membership in the EU, but Belgrade must accelerate reforms in order to meet EU standards,” he said.
Hill also dedicated part of his speech to regional issues in the Western Balkans, emphasizing that the US sees Serbia as the key to regional stability.
Frustrated by the lack of progress in the EU-led Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, Hill said he believed mutual recognition of Serbia and Kosovo would unleash Serbia’s European potential and strengthen regional stability.
He expressed the greatest concern over the political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina over the attempts of the Republika Srpska to withdraw from joint institutions and the actions of the RS supremo and Serbian member of the state presidency, Milorad Dodik.
Hill said that if he is elected ambassador, he will ask Vucic to put pressure on the RS leadership to withdraw the steps they have taken to separate the RS judiciary and the army from the Bosnian institutions.
Vuk Velebit is a Serbian foreign policy analyst with focus on relations between Russia, Western Balkans, and West.
The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of BIRN.
